The new NBC News poll shows 51% of registered voters saying they plan to vote early, with that group breaking hard for Harris and Election Day voters backing Trump.
Half of registered voters plan to vote early this fall, new figures from the September NBC News poll show, with Democrats continuing to run up the score among early voters and Republicans getting stronger backing from those who plan to vote in person on Election Day.
Fifty-one percent of voters say they’ll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those voters.
By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It’s a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.
🗳️ Register to vote: https://vote.gov/
So if I’m doing my math correctly, that’s 49%-45% for Harris in the popular vote. And that 49% is pretty much right on where she’s been polling in traditional polls. But Trump has been polling way higher than 45% recently—so if this is in any way true, he’s got a much tougher path to victory ahead of him than the standard numbers suggest.