With presidential primaries underway and a 2020 general election rematch seemingly the most likely outcome, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows former President Donald Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden in a matchup shaping up to be a close contest nationally.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn’t have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask…
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn’t have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +3 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +7 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2020-PG-no-allocations&game-view=map
Trump wins, 312 to 226.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask…
I’d like to know why people are downvoting. Is this inaccurate?
It’s inaccurate in Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads in 3 of 4 January polls.
Why it’s important to keep looking I guess, the last time I looked, the most recent polls were Morning Consult showing Trump up:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Just to be clear: your link shows that the most recent poll is Franklin & Marshall, which has Biden ahead.