A prediction for the 2024 US election

I bet it’s deliberate. Like a power play knowing his story is clearly bullshit but the morons he’s appealing to are believing it making him feel even more superior.

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This is a reasonable question. This is politics - the Harris campaign are putting pressure on Trump to do the same. Harris has a clear bill of health yet Trump is nearly 80 and rambling in his speeches.

The Harris move puts pressure on Trump to do the same. If he doesn’t it makes him look like he has something to hide, and regardless it draws attention to his health and mental state for voters.

So it’s not “weird” - it’s political strategy and game playing that both sides are doing all the time.

I don’t know why this is being downvoted. There seems to be a wierd group think around that criticising the Democrat campaign means you support Trump or something?

The article is well written and it’s certainly not pro Trump. Instead it’s taking a position that the campaign is making misteps that Clinton also made, which might let Trump win.

It opens with a very good point - Democrats seem to believe they ran a good campaign in 2016 and should have won. There seems to be a lack of introspection even now about why they lost and what they should be doing to win over voters.

I think the Harris campaign is better than the 2016 campaign but I do agree there are some worrying elements. A clear one is the uninspired and vague policies - the campaign is running mostly on personality and the idea that Trump is dangerous. That did not work for Clinton, although Harris certain ly has much more personality and likability. It is a risky strategy to retry.

My worry is that they saw the big victory Labour had in the UK and are drawing the wrong conclusions. Labour won because the Incumbent Tories were very unpopular, and they so were very cautious about policies - they kept their mouth shut and let the Tories implode. But that has been tried with Trump before and he is not the incumbent. Also Labour are not popular here - they have not managed to break through, they have merely benefited from the Tories collapse in our first past the post system. Trump has not collapsed.

If they’re emulating a UK strategy of letting Trump lose rather than actively trying to win then ti’s very dangerous and risky. We have a parliamentary democracy which does not transfer to the electoral college voting system. They should not base anything around UK labours success. It’s a mirage.

Might be even simpler - the elderly can decline very quickly mentally and also physically, and that may he what we’re seeing with here.

Not heard that one before about the cia but let’s say for a moment that is true - Signal is open source so anyone can audit and work with the source code. Also anyone can set up an independent signal server and network.

Are you maybe confusing Signal with Tor and the CIA with the US Navy?

Trump has cognitively declined since 2016 and is increasingly incoherent and nasty. I think the Dems are gambling that many voters aren’t watching his stump appearances so this is a good way to expose him to voters.

I think its too big a gamble and mute him. I think he will expose himself enough on his own turns to speak.

Isn’t it too late to change VP candidate? I saw speculation on this before and the issues were around the need to reconvene delegates for the RNC to approve the change and also to be on the ballot? Early voting starts in September so October is also too late?

The pollster is kind of right - on paper the economy should be an issue in Trumps favour. We’ve just come out of a period of high inflation and people are feeling the cost of living. Immigration is also supposedly an issue that should be favouring Trump.

That’s not to say that Trump has the answers - he does not - but in a conventional election cycle he would be in the stronger position as the “outsider” attacking the incumbents.

Yet instead the entire news cycle is dominated by Harris and Walz at the moment. Republicans are desperate for Trump to get back “on message” but instead he’s flailing around as his ego can’t take the Dems attack lines, biden dropping out and Harris apparent popularity.

So although the pollster is obviously biased as a Republican, I think he’s right in the sense this not playing out like a conventional election.

Also, I have to say as an outside observer from the UK, the excitement around Harris reminds me of Obama’s first election. Obama came from no where in the primaries and huge momentum built behind him as the hope candidate. Harris has emerged much later in the election cycle, and oddly she feels like the exciting unknown candidate even though she is Vice President. Yet it does feel like the momentum is with her and she drawing in people who have been otherwise alienated by the republican / democrat arguments over the last 4 years.

I have no idea if it’ll carry on to election day. But I must say on a personal note, the more I see of Harris, the more I warm to her. I suspect a lot of voters will feel the same. Her humour, and warmth are in stark contrast to Trumps meanness and petty nastiness. I’m beginning to think Trump is not capable of beating Harris.

Yes absolutely - looking at electoral college prediction sites based on the polls, if the Dems won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania alongside the leaning and safe states, they would get 270 electoral college votes and win. Obviously they need to work tirelessly to go way beyond that and it’s a long way to November, but it shows how the switch to Harris has completely upended the election and reinvigorated the Dems electoral chances.

It’s crazy to think only a few weeks ago Trump was on a massive high - Biden on the ropes from a disastrous debate, Trump survived an assassination attempt, had a triumphant conference, and had multiple unexpected legal successes. And overnight by Biden stepping down and Harris stepping up unopposed the Dems have changed the entire narrative and are dominating the coverage.

Probably Obama’s endorsement which finally shut down the prospects of a contested primary.

The Dems got into the mess with Biden because they wouldn’t test him with an actual open primary process. Not having a contest for Harris may be pragmatic but it may dog the party in the future. If she loses then there will be recriminations. And if she wins they will have to think about what they do in 2028 - does she get a free pass again or does the party get a say? Do all those ambitious contenders step aside again?

Problems for another day. I think the dems are doing the right thing in coronating Harris now as they have been left with no choice. But they really need to think about what happens with sitting presidents and the primaries - waving Biden through was disasterous, and him dragging his feet on steeping down shut down all other options. I have very little respect left for Biden - he did the right thing but took far too long to do it, risking everything.

Nah I think this is just another example of Elon Musk being impulsive and not thinking through the consequences of his statements.

He can’t actually afford $45m a month. His wealth is in Tesla shares (which are difficult to draw done further both while he continues to try to fleece the company with an absurd pay package and also can’t risk destabilising the share price - its something of a house of cards with its value largely based on the future possibility of a flawed self drive tech) and Twitter (which took $20bn of his actual liquid assets and then debt and which he is running into the ground).

Also he may be realising the PR mistake of backing trump when he runs an electric car company that is losing market share and valued speculatively rather than actual financials.

His focus is really gettingnas much out of Tesla as hebcan before the markets turn on it.

So is the issue your co workers or is really that it bothers you so much?

Maybe the real thing here is you need to learn how to let the crazy and annoying wash over you. Because at the moment you’re letting that leak into your personal time - you’re thinking about things that are annoying you when really, why should they?

They’re “winning” not because they annoyed you at work, but because you’re letting it bother you when you’re not at work.

There are skills in being able to ignore things that annoy you, or learning to let things go or even compartmentalising parts of your life.

Not going to happen though. While the left came first they still are not a majority. They hold 180 seats, which is less than 1/3 of the 577. No one really won the election.

Its really deadlock and all 3 groups will struggle to work together as none want the blame for the mess that will be split gjvernment, and all want to position themselves as the solution, win the presidency and/or next set of legislative elections.

So there is no way the centre or right will vote in a 90% tax on the rich. It’ll be a struggle to even get a basic budget passed.

Geuninely I am concerned the Biden campaign limited the time for the interview to hide any gaffes. Its already emerged he’s had multiple “episodes” over the last 6 months, and today its been revealed he’s seen a Parkinson’s expert neurologist 8 times in the past year. Yet the biden campaign have aggressively and condescendingly dismissed all concerns over Biden over the same period.

Also in my country, the UK, political interviews are often substantial - 1 hour is not uncommon (often edited down) and even during our election we had full full unedited 30 min live interviews for each of the main party leaders.

Maybe 22mins is just because American TV is so dysfunctional? But given how the biden campaign have been so dismissive of concerns and then the debate has revealed them in a cold hard light, then yes I’m suspicious. There is little trust left after what we saw in the debates. The white house has been telling bare faced lies when directly asked about Bidens health on multiple occasions.

Biden has been a good president, but he is not a good candidate for this election. This issue is so damaging that he’s behind Trump in the polls despite trump being a convicted felon. And worse, no one is holding Trump to account because biden is a distraction. Trump said a lot of crazy things in the debate but all people remember is Biden’s performance.

Some people are doubling down as the narrative that criticising biden was akin to supporting trump which was being spouted a lot before the debate.

It seems a lot of people seem unable to get away from the idea that “biden is too mentally infirm” is a republican talking point and therefore cannot be true. It is a republican talking point but it also is worryingly true.

22 minutes? Is he not capable of an hour long interview?

Then I’d definitely set up a test system in a VM on your own PC (I.e. not the actual server machines). Even if you don’t want to use Docker, you can set up a complete version of your new server and practice deploying Jellyfin and Plex, and then test accessing it “remotely” to manage it. You can then decide whether switching away from Win11 is worth it.

If you’re not familiar with the process of setting up a linux server then I’d actually suggest Debian instead of OpenSuSe. Looking at the Jellyfin guide for example it specifically covers the steps for installing directly onto a Debian host (while OpenSuSE set up means using the Fedora RPM guide). There are also straight forward guides for setting up a Debian server.

Personally I’m not a fan of Ubuntu (because of Canonical and Snap etc) but there may also be a good choice just because there are so many guides out there for setting up Ubuntu server.

Docker is pretty easy to use, and is easy to play with either on your own system (linux or windows) or in VM guest system. The learning curve isn’t that high and Jellyfin for example has a clear set up guide for docker on their wiki.

But radarr, sonarr etc can be installed directly within linux without docker. The Servarr wiki (that these projects use officially to share information as they’re so similar) has lots of straight forward guides for set up on Linux, Windows, Mac etc as well as Docker.

I have a Linux guest VM set up with a Radarr, Sonarr etc set up, VPN and torrent set up. It was easy to do and means its network activity is all securely contained away from my host system. The tools let me set naming rules and file preferences. The library is a shared n folder in my host system, and that is included in my Jellyfin library. So all I have to do is subscribe to something i am interested in and it will just appear in my library once downloaded. The servarr tools are extremely convenient and worth looking at if you’re adding to that 30tb library over time.