Refugee from another, less-friendly instance. Please forgive the youth of my account— I’ve actually been around here for a while. Still, glad to be here!

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Joined 30 days ago
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Cake day: June 3rd, 2024

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  • 2031? Maybe. If the Ukraine war ends soon, it would give them a couple of years before they started up their bullshit. So, yeah, maybe. (Edit 2) I’d say it’s much more likely of Russia walks away with favorable terms, even less likely should Russia end up with an embarrassing loss…

    But the stuff with AI it’s not some thing they could win with their military. Not even by taking over Taiwan (which I’m not convinced they can). Economic pressure that they can weild certainly would be more likely to help them achieve their goals. It just takes a lot longer.

    Edit:

    They don’t make clear threats empty.

    Oh, yes they do. All the time. China is a lot more talk than they are action, and they always have been. That’s why I am skeptical about them invading Taiwan anytime soon.


  • All of China’s actions that you have described, I see as a dissipation of the united effort against Taiwan. Like I said, I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying it won’t happen really soon. China actually gives a huge shit about their international reputation. And they don’t want to that damaged fighting a war they can’t win. They will wait to move on Taiwan until they can be reasonably assured of a victory. And that won’t happen anytime soon.

    China is also quite adept at fighting economic wars (like the US), and that’s what they’re going to do with AI. Just with money and sanctions and diplomatic bullshittery.


  • Only when crashing into the ocean, thousands of miles short of its target

    Edit: seriously, though, it’s pretty clear that they can build nuclear warheads (how many and what size is unclear), but their problem is getting the bomb to its target.

    Rocketry is hard. It’s uber-expensive, and it requires a great deal of trial-and-error. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had gotten data, etc, from Russia and China like some guidance (or even rocket plans), but NK’s best physicists and aerospace engineers are both: not that great, and working entirely alone with a budget that is a minuscule fraction of anyone else who has tried this.

    They’ve been trying to launch an ICBM successfully for almost 2 decades. They haven’t had much success yet.



  • I thought about that for a long time, and, honestly, it seems that Russia may have stolen China’s thunder there by invading Ukraine. As a result, the whole world (mostly) super-hates and has united against Russia with untold billions of weapons and aid to Ukraine.

    What’s China to think of their Taiwan plan, now? Well, I think it’s obvious by watching what they’re doing, what they’ve been doing.

    Although they’ve become more aggressive in the South China Sea, what with building all their fake islands and atolls in order to claim some sovereignty to the waters. But most of what they’re doing merely amounts to harassment and bullying of surrounding nations. And while there’s been a good amount of somewhat-incendiary talk re: China’s intentions towards Taiwan, they’ve actually done very little to accomplish that goal, as of late. They’re being careful, weighing their options, and proceeding slowly but surely.

    Will Taiwan become the next place invaded? A new flashpoint? I don’t think so, or, at least, not for a while. The Ukraine War, Russia’s almost-collapsed economy, and their need for aid of all kinds has put China into an uncomfortable position, and they seem to be reprioritizing. Also, Taiwan has had a defense buildup for several years, and they’re far more capable of defending themselves than before.

    If China makes any serious move against Taiwan, IMO, it will be a while from now.