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Cake day: July 17th, 2023

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  • Confused. It says she has less than a 50/50 shot at winning the electoral college, but then “a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College”

    I’m not a statistician, but what fucking math is showing any reasonable chance that Harris loses the popular vote? Because that’s the only way that math checks out.

    Electoral win: 0.473

    Electoral loss: 1 - 0.473 = 0.527

    Electoral Loss + Popular Win = 0.17

    I can’t lookup the formula right now, but this indicates that the chance of Harris losing the popular vote is significant


















  • Guys, I know how easy it is to say “lol what a dumbass” about people like this, but as someone who grew up rural it’s really hard to express the effect of being completely surrounded by a culture that is still suffering from a generational grief of having industry take their resources and destroy their land, only to then take the jobs away and completely abandon everyone to poverty. Years and years of politicians making promises that never came to pass, or never actually helped those people. Republican talking heads like Fox news took advantage of that and pretended to sympathise with their angst, while riling them up by drip feeding other bits of moral outrage, and just magnified the distrust of “city liberals” and “costal elites” over the course of generations. And we all know about the poor education in rural areas!

    No matter how much democrats could tell them what votes are in their best interest, it’s really no wonder they wouldn’t believe them. Imagine if War of the Worlds actually happened, then 50 years later a martian showed up and told you that you earthings really need to implement this financial system called gronsnockle and it would make your lives so much better (and also that you’re just a stupid earthling dumbass who doesn’t know what’s best for you).

    If Donald Trump’s bullshit is making cracks in the armor that Murdoch and the Nixon legacy has spent so long shoring up, we should be encouraging that. Does anyone really think that insulting people who are trying to change, is a good way to make more people change??