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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Lapsley noted that Moscow has recently been “talking an awful lot about their nuclear doctrine and how that may or not be evolving.” He said that it appears to be “a pretty clear attempt to influence us” when it comes to support for Ukraine.

    […] Putin said that a conventional attack on Russia by any country with the support of a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack […] But NATO has not seen any real change in Moscow’s nuclear posture.

    Lots of posturing, very transparent.

    Rutte said it’s important to just leave Putin to “talk about his nuclear arsenal. He wants us also to discuss his nuclear arsenal, and I think we shouldn’t.”

    At the same time, Rutte said, giving in to any threat “would set a precedent that using military force allows a country to get what it wants, and we cannot do that.”

    This guy gets it.



  • Your description makes belief sound like willful ignorance.

    Maybe, maybe not. In the absence of evidence, belief may be harmless, though somewhat pointless in the sense of Hitchen’s razor:

    What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.

    and Newton’s flaming laser sword:

    That which cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.

    It certainly becomes willful ignorance if the believer avoids and/or actively rejects contradictory evidence.

    It sounds like the real challenge is knowing when you have enough information to convert your educated guess into full-blown knowledge

    The educated guess (hypothesis) becomes knowledge when it can be demonstrated by direct experiment rather than inferred/constructed from related knowledge. Also it’s important that the educated guess be testable/disprovable somehow, at least in theory (Popper’s falsifiability principle):

    Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or refute it.

    So, belief is benign when it exists in an untested/untestable area and the believer is not bound to the belief emotionally. Belief is malignant when it exists in a tested area or when the believer clings to the belief emotionally. Belief is either harmless or extremely damaging, but in either case of no practical value.



  • Belief is seeing that the light is green even when it isn’t.

    Knowledge is accepting that the light is red when it is.

    Believing that the light is green will not help you when you get flattened by a truck. Knowing that the light is red will keep you from dying pointlessly.

    Knowledge is the first step on the path to wisdom. Belief is delusion.

    If you cannot demonstrate, or point to a demonstration, then all you can do is guess. You can make an educated guess based on other demonstrations, but if you cling to your guesswork as if it were demonstrated to be true, and you internalize your guesswork as part of your identity, and you refuse to let go of it when confronted with contradictory demonstrations, then you are a fool.










  • Absolutely, a single hospital for an entire country would not work. But also, small clinics on every street corner would not work because none of them would be able to support more complex/expensive functions like surgical wards, FMRI or biochem labs. The hospital needs to be scaled so that it can support those things, but then it only makes sense for it to serve a larger community because it’s going to need a large staff and a substantial budget - so it needs to be at least locally centralized.

    As you said, there’s a critical size.



  • If everything is completely decentralized then it essentially means that each person is providing for themselves… including basic services like water and waste processing. Centralizing these things makes sense, they’re more efficient when operated at scale, and there are significant benefits to task specialization. And frankly, you don’t want decentralized medical care - you want big, modern, well-funded hospitals with the latest technology, which means centralized locations and management.

    Decentralizing services doesn’t make sense. Individual residence solar panels are substantially less productive than large-scale solar plants. Services like energy, water, medicine and waste handling should be concentrated and publicly funded - but then that means you need to collect public funds and then decide how to use them, and that means government. The larger the public project is that you want to build, the larger the government around it has to be.