• 3 Posts
  • 25 Comments
Joined 11 months ago
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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • The problem with having a universal minimum wage is the minimum is usually pegged to the state with the lowest COI, and there are usually assholes in government in higher COI states who will not require their state to set the minimum any higher. So you end up with people still struggling to survive because the minimum wage is too low and their state doesn’t have any delta. Pegging the minimum wage to regional COI makes way more sense given the vast differences in COI between urban and rural parts of states.



  • I’m not sure that’s correct. 538 was always a polling aggregator, but people treated it like 60% chance means “for sure.” I think what we’re now seeing is we don’t actually have much good polling data due to extremism, and therefore sites like 538 aren’t as valuable.

    I distinctly remember Silver refused to make a prediction on who would win in 2016 because he insisted that Trump’s 33% odds according to 538 meant there was a very real chance of a Trump victory. But everyone came out an blamed Silver for calling it wrong.

    I don’t actually like the guy, I think his analysis and political savvy is pretty weak and he comes off as incredibly arrogant. But he literally just runs a weighted data aggregator. So if the data is bad, his results will be bad too.






  • It’s the network’s rule:

    Kennedy has already hit CNN’s 15% polling threshold in two out of four qualifying polls. But the network also announced that participants must “appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline.”

    I think as a bare minimum requirement, being able to appear on the ballots of enough states to actually have a chance of winning makes perfect sense as a rule. With all the things to shit on the parties for, why make up a strawman?