If they want to add me to the list, my name is H.I. McDonough. And if they want to discuss it, they know where to find me: in the Maricopa County Maximum Security Correctional Facility For Men State Farm, Road Number 31, Tempe, Arizona. I’ll be waiting.
The perfect plan. The only thing that could screw it up is if the climate somehow changed.
I meant that’s all we have at the moment so be patient and give it a week. I know Data for Progress is a bit of a mess. The last CEO got run off for essentially insider trading on prediction markets.
Agreed. I’m not saying Biden should or shouldn’t drop out. I’m saying we’ll know more in a few days and everyone should calm down and also consider the downside risks. Even beyond basic horse race polling, we don’t know how voters would react to a replacement candidate instead of “generic Democrat.” Maybe someone like Whitmer solidifies Michigan but is unpopular with Georgia or Arizona voters for some reason. I have no idea at this point.
I responded to another post but I don’t think we have high quality post-debate data yet. Most pollsters are affiliated with one party. That’s who pays them for internal polls and where they make their money. The few independent, non-profit poll organizations haven’t released anything I’ve seen. (And there’s like 6 news organizations left that can afford to conduct polls.)
Either way, though, you’re better off with a poll average than any one poll. We’re a few days away from knowing how likely voters responded to the debate.
My initial post was saying to wait for high quality polling data and stop having panic attacks over one debate. The downside risk to Biden dropping out is real and everyone is acting like it’ll be a simple situation where everyone unites around their preferred candidate.
I didn’t vote for Biden in any primary but I’m not convinced a convention where they nominate (for instance) Harris, Newsom, or Whitmer would be anything but chaos that angered at least some constituencies and led to more Republicans winning up and down the ballot. Everyone is assuming things at this point and I’m saying “Wait to see if this even moves the polls.”
I have bad news about who a convention of Biden loyalists will nominate regardless of what horrors Israel does. Or a committee of wise party elders (which doesn’t exist), for that matter. The time to challenge Biden was before he won every primary with like 80% of the vote.
There’s just not a realistic way that I can see where the convention nominates a progressive option. Even just replacing Biden with someone younger and the exact same policies would be nearly impossible.
This whole freakout over one bad debate (that had lousy ratings) in effing June is more embarrassing than productive. Maybe everyone should calm the fuck down and wait for enough high quality poll data to see if it even caused a shift in the race. For all we know, it changed zero minds or people were turned off by Trump’s angrier, dumber rambling old man answers.
Clarence Thomas and Alito getting stuck at the space station while the MBAs running Boeing try to figure out if they’re worth the risk is how this should end.
The only “good” part of the ruling is that environmental groups can also sue and say weak regulations should be tossed. When Chevron was originally decided, it was considered good for Conservatives.
Obviously, there will probably be terrible rulings for the time being. But who knows if Harlan Crowe’s private jet was made by Boeing? Things can change quickly.
There’s also the fact that cartels run a lot of border towns. It’s not that border area Latinos are mad at illegal migration so much as they don’t want South Texas to be like Northern Mexico.
Also, it’s a little silly to treat Latinos as a single group. South Florida Cubans are different from everyone, basically. Recent immigrants are different from 2nd or 3rd generation ones. Ted Cruz’s full name is Rafael Edward Cruz and he’s different from people who aren’t bozos.
It’s allowed but the convention delegates choose the nominee. So, it’d probably have to be agreed ahead of time who the nominee would be and that the other contenders (and donors) would fall in line. Maybe if it’s Whitmer, they promise Harris and Newsome a cabinet secretary position. I’m not sure anyone has that sort of support, though. VP Harris would be the logical option for that sort of transition but she’s not popular and Trump is already making ads saying a vote for Biden means Kamala Harris will be president before the term is over.
I mean, anything is possible. We’re in uncharted waters. But to me, that’s also the problem. And we don’t know for sure why Biden was off in the debate. Maybe he had a cold. Maybe he’s so old, his childhood memories are in black and white. Maybe a month from now, there will have been a whole new news cycle and the debate will be forgotten.
I didn’t vote for Biden in the 2020 primary and I don’t disagree with you on those points. That easily could be how it plays out. I just think if Biden resigns, there’s a high chance of a split in the party (after a contested convention) and we’re all imagining a new candidate we like (or just a “generic democrat”) replacement rather than a real person who possibly has baggage, hasn’t been tested on the national stage (or was bad on it like Kamala Harris), or won’t be able to unite the coalition that backed Biden in 2020.
Basically, I think it’s a huge gamble this late in the election. Biden shouldn’t have run again and when he did, should have faced a real challenge in the primary. But that isn’t what happened and now I think changing course over one debate isn’t worth the risk.
Meh. I’m an American and I don’t hate it here. But I’m from (and moved back to) a culturally distinct place (New Orleans) so I don’t really identify with the dominant culture. I loathe the politics/corruption and how our government is structured. (The amendments are the best part of our constitution and maybe we should think about that for a bit.) I’m deeply ashamed that we’re the world’s biggest arms dealer and oil/gas producer.
That being said, we have beautiful landscapes and individual American people are usually kind, decent people, at least on an interpersonal level. The corruption of companies and elected officials doesn’t usually extend to the middle class. (Like, you don’t have to bribe someone to get a driver’s license or permits or whatever.) There’s obviously loads of advantages to being an American citizen, just as there are to being an EU citizen. I love our national parks. Just the western half of the United States contains enough varied forms of amazing landscapes to keep a person occupied for a lifetime.
So, I wouldn’t say I like America as a political entity. It’s definitely in my top 30 or so countries to live. I wouldn’t give up my citizenship for a random place but, having travelled extensively, there’s a lot of countries that have a better form of government and a healthier balance between oligarchs and labor.
No one arguing that he should drop out has really thought it through. Like, TV ad time has been reserved and planned through September. Donor networks would need to be on board. It would be chaos at the convention while they fought over who it should be. It’d be a disaster.
If she’s intimidated, she should use her experience as a CrossFit instructor and get the drag queens to lift weights as fast as possible with terrible form so they all get injured.
Apparently, that’s what the general allegedly behind it is claiming but I’m not sure I trust the word of “guy who just got arrested for leading a failed coup attempt.” But who knows?
Looks like the coup failed even faster than Trump’s and Bolsonaro’s: https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-military-deployment-arce-coup-fears-028cd88f3be1fb02164c05deb0faa099
It’s very complex and involves issues of race, religion, democracy, corruption, economics, etc. But in another way, it’s not complex: Bolivia is sitting on massive untapped lithium mines. Someone is going to get rich from that and whether it’s the people of Bolivia or oligarchs is why coups are tempting:
I don’t know who is backing the current coup, obviously, but I suspect few corporations or Western governments would be upset if a right wing party seizes power (again) despite losing the last several recent elections.
He doesn’t even have to assassinate 1 or 2. Thomas committed tax fraud on his RV deal and Alito probably did on his bribes. Joe Biden apparently has dictatorial powers over the IRS and DOJ. Start arresting people and when Trump supporters act up, use emergency powers to drone strike Mar-a-Lago. Those are all official acts.