It’s not just made up. People placing bets are looking at the voting histories of the precincts with outstanding votes. A 4% chance is not a ~0% chance, so they haven’t called it. But neither is it a 50% chance.

I’m not writing a paper, or “citing” a source. I’m just showing what the current betting odds are, because, as you said, they are a quick and easy snapshot of a synthesis of those other models. I assumed people understood this. You appear to understand, but then you also go on to compare betting odds to an Etsy Witch(?).

I don’t care what motivates people to downvote. I was the only one who contributed a substantive comment regarding Steyers’ actual odds of advancing, after one commenter made it sound like he still had a real chance. Whatever. Just “give it until Tuesday or Wednesday” then.

Agreed. They should be illegal.

The ones who do go will get to enjoy that east coast summer heat and humidity while listening to “God Bless the USA” for the hundredth time and some singer who reminds Trump of Pavarotti. I love how Trump is always shoving it in MAGA’s faces how culturally irrelevant they are.

True…. What’s your point?

Do you think Steyer has significantly more than a 4% chance of coming back when the outstanding votes are counted? If so, why? Or did you just see a screenshot and your lizard brain went “Betting markets bad!”?

It’s not looking good.

(Becerra already resolved Yes)

Don’t forget Jon Voight, James Woods, Kelsey Grammer, Kevin Sorbo, Roseanne Barr, Michael Rapaport, Scott Baio, and Randy’s brother Dennis. Nicki Minaj and Kanye can do the halftime show.

Wrong.

He’s dumb as rock.

The lyrics to the chorus of his signature song are “I’m proud to be an American, where at least I know I’m free.”

Not “…in America, where…”, which would make grammatical sense.

They’re saying that while the leaking of trial balloons is nothing new (like a bus stopping at a bus stop), it is being done in a unprecedented manner - perhaps in kind or quantity.

Yes.

Well, a problem. Because I don’t see the world in black and white and believe there is just one problem, unlike some idiots.

I agree there must have been a sizable chunk of voters who were unaware that Trump posed a threat to democracy itself, but I assume those people are just generally relatively uninformed. The way I knew he was a threat to democracy was through consuming mainstream media (and some podcasts).

By 2024 Trump had been on the political scene for almost a decade. This was post Jan 6. There was no excuse for putting him back in power. The voters sanewashed him to themselves. People are very adaptable. We are the same species who owned slaves, walked on the moon, tore out peoples hearts at the tops of pyramids, sit in boxes for 8 hours a day, and hunted giant fuzzy elephants to extinction by hand - and all of it is “normal.”

Even today, 37% of Americans think Trump is great!

What % of NYT readers voted for Trump? It has to be minuscule.

The election was so close, there are dozens of but-for causes that could have tipped the scale, but the NYT not being sufficiently alarmist about Trump (which is what that CNN article you linked claims - not that the paper was a proponent of Trump, as you say) probably wasn’t one of them.