It’s more like Reddit is a bunch of edgy teenagers who already skew in favor of liberal ideas far beyond that of the regular voting public. It’s why atheism is wildly popular on Reddit as well as issues like abortion or trans rights, when the American public is far more evenly split.

Yes there’s some campaigning going on on Reddit as well but it’s dwarfed by the left wing base already on the site. The swell in anti-Biden posts make this split all the more obvious.

We all know Trump doesn’t actually want to serve his country. During a Hannity interview Trump couldn’t name a single thing he wanted to enact in his second term. It’s all about keeping himself out of prison and helping heal his wounded ego for losing in 2020.

I’m not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden

Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.

Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.

a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.

Biden’s numbers are baked in.

No, we have a president who is ahead in some polls and behind in others, 6 months before an election (which is generally unreliable since the polls fluctuate wildly this early). Pollsters and political scientists unanimously report polling in June is not reliable this soon before Labor Day. Look back and you’ll see HIllary, Romney, and Dukakis all ahead at this point in previous elections. The reason we are having this conversation is because people got skittish about the Debate, but we don’t even have accurate post-debate survey data at this time. The snap surveys by CNN and others showed a muddle of some people claiming Biden won anyway and others not. More data will come in next week.

And don’t forget the counterfactual; if you replace Biden despite winning the primaries in a landslide, you will anger many voters. Millions of people voted for Biden and this was not close; they rejected Dean Phillips and alternatives. People voted for Harris as a known backup; skipping her and having Newsom take over will cause a storm and backlash of a size we can’t quantify yet. There simply isn’t any data on Democratic voters that show any Biden remorse; you’re operating on the vibes from social media and some pundits.

In truth, we really haven’t been through this already.

Correct, and replacing Biden is a huge risk. It could cost the election the same way John McCain took a gamble on Sarah Palin and lost.

We already have Newsom vs Biden and Newsom vs Trump polls. And the pundits talked endlessly in 2020 about the shortcomings of each candidate and why they’d struggle against Trump. We’ve been through this already.

If Biden steps down then of course whoever gets nominated will get a bump of course, but like we discussed collectively in 2020, they’d have their own separate hurdles. Bernie Sanders would energize many voters but his socialism talk would turn many voters off. Pete Buttigieg struggled to connect with voters of color. Warren had some political flubs and Trump launched many attacks on her etc. while there’s concern many Americans still won’t vote for a woman for president, and so on. The point I’m making is that you may find yourself in a situation in October where you WISH Biden was running again with his high poll numbers and solid national record that other candidates lack.

Show me one with higher poll numbers than Biden. When they were head to head in 2020 each polled lower than Biden against Trump.

I don’t want to defend Biden. He should go. He is a corrupt old man with a ton of baggage and his Palestine policy was atrocious. But I don’t see any of those people beating Trump based on the data we have.

We all know that Biden is a liability. BUT WHO WILL REPLACE HIM? I don’t like the man but who else in the party can take his role? Nobody credibly challenged him during the primary. Harris doesn’t poll as well as Biden and does worse. We’re stuck with him because nobody stepped up all year or last year, and everyone who wants him to step down thinks some magic TBD savior can show up out of nowhere and magically do better. Heck, Dean Phillips tried to run for president on the exact same issues and promised identical policies just in a younger person and he lost the race badly.

We’re stuck with Biden, and likely will lose.

The problem is that the debate doesn’t really change much… except for low information and undecided voters. They don’t know what Trump is spewing and whether it’s a lie or not. When he makes up wild claims that Biden is unanimously declared worst president in history, they don’t know that’s a lie, or that Trump is lying about capping the price of insulin or the existence of 9 month elective abortions, etc. Trump’s confident lies actually win over a lot of undecided people who don’t do any research into the topic.

A libel case is different.

The problem is Trump could claim “oops I forgot that I agreed with the crowd in 2016” and that is different than intentionally lying. That’s why journalists have to split hairs here; George Santos can be called a liar but saying Trump lied this time is harder. It opens a can of worms; when Biden inevitably gets a detail wrong in another story of his should they call him a liar?

Democrats basically sell themselves on the idea that you should be afraid that the Republican might win, and vote for them to prevent that.

Pathetically, that’s what Republicans said for the 4 years Trump was in office. “Please overlook his faults, a Democrat would be worse!”

No it doesn’t. Extreme rhetoric like yours is actually part of the problem. Like I said, Hamas has been supporting a 2 state solution for 20 years now; freedom for Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza and an end to de jure and de facto discrimination of Palestinians in Israel.

Hamas has a clear charter and consistent speeches; liberating Palestine from Israeli control. You might not trust them but they’ve been consistent in calling for a Two State Solution since 2004, they kept the majority of ceasefires (Israel broke more ceasefires over the last 20 years than Hamas did) and since Netanyahu has spent years undermining Abbas it means Hamas has more public trust than he does. I don’t trust Likud either since their public charter calls for the total elimination of Palestine, but he’s in power and have to deal with him.

You act like releasing the hostages would end the war. Netanyahu publicly promised that even if all hostages were returned the war would not stop. That’s why he refuses all offers for a ceasefire in exchange for all hostages. He doesn’t care about them, and Israeli protestors and the opposition parties agree.

Likud wanted this fight, and could end it by allowing a two state solution. That would even undermine Hamas politically and give political credence to Abbas and other moderates. But Netanyahu intentionally spent 17 years obstructing that and trapping himself into this corner he made for himself.

That’s completely incorrect from the Palestinian POV. The Palestinians elected Fatah and Abbas, who had a policy of nonviolence and Israel continued to steal land and shoot Palestinians as a result. Palestinians went to the UN to complain and Israel blocked it and sanctioned Palestinians as a result. Palestinians copied Israel and elected a rightwing party Hamas, a party with a similar platform to fight back and squeeze the other side for concessions. Hamas proposed a ceasefire but Israel violated it by shelling the beach and killing a family, prompting a cycle of violence and blockade with starvation. Palestinians peacefully protested and the Israeli military shot hundreds of them. Israeli settlers engaged in a wave of pogroms in West Bank, dragging Arabs out of cars and beating them and burning down towns. (Also settler raids on Al Aqsa) The first 9 months of 2023 were the deadliest year for Palestinians in 20 years, so Hamas retaliated on October 7 as they warned they would.

Hamas has said explicitly that this was not a war they were hoping for but all their other options were closed.

It was discussed during the Hope Hicks testimony and others. After the Access Hollywood tape came out, his poll numbers took a nosedive. He was afraid that a story about cheating on his wife with a porn star would doom the campaign so he arranged to pay hush money to her and talked about on stiffing her on the rest of the payments after the election.

I think a lot of people are kidding themselves if they think there’s no material benefit to the US by keeping Israel as an iron-clad ally in the Middle East

Not at all. Israel is a greater liability than any benefit they provide. Unconditional support for every Israeli aggression makes the US deeply unpopular in the rest of the region when we were previously popular. It undermines all our rhetoric of freedom and human rights when we partner with such a blatant violator of them. Bin Laden spelled out in his 2001 statement that support for Israel’s atrocities is what motivated 9/11, and doubling down on that support only increased terrorism for the next 20 years.

And what do we get out of this ironclad support? Did Israel help us in any of our wars in Iraq or Afghanistan? Do they give us any aid or resources or do they demand them from us?

Completely Pulling support is one thing, but “conditioning support” has broad bipartisan public appeal. Bernie Sanders can articulate this well; support for Israeli defense programs like Iron Dome, and cutting support for offensive artillery that’s being used to storm Gaza. Why can’t Biden say the same, instead he’s trying to split hairs on whether tanks into Rafah doesn’t count as a ground invasion (and making himself look stupid in front of voters).

Best as far as Trump is concerned for him.

Ah so you couldn’t show any. Got it.

Or do you mean when IDF sentenced an Israeli to 3 months of community service as punishment for murdering a Palestinian, you think that counts as sufficient prosecution?

lol, so Netanyahu isn’t an extremist who was caught lying multiple times about the existence of Hamas command centers under multiple buildings. You think it’s more likely he’s guided by intelligence reports over his actual ideology or his political and personal motivation to prolong a war to avoid jail time once he’s out of office for corruption?

Western Intelligence hasn’t backed up this claim so stop hiding behind them as if that absolves the crime.

Go ahead and show me IDF prosecuting war criminals in their ranks. I’ll wait. Despite the White House telling the Israeli government which specific divisions committed documented crimes this year alone, there hasn’t been any prosecutions. And I’m not talking about a single case but the hundreds of documented episodes on video of Israeli soldiers supporting pogroms in West Bank. Russia literally prosecuted more pogrom perpetrators than Israel has despite the video proof and more witnesses.

Nonsense. Israel is claiming there were Hamas commanders responsible for recent West Bank attacks hiding under the tents. How is that possible when Gaza has been sealed and blockaded since 2007? And how are Hamas commanders allegedly in a land cleared by the IDF and in a “safe zone” the IDF told civilians to move to?

The IDF has a miserable track record of being proved to be lying by reporters over and over and over again, and even this claim strains credibility.