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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Eh, Hanlon’s Razor. There are certainly plenty of dirty neo-libs, but I also think the Democratic party is where passionate, practical minded, progressive political science types wind up, and I think that demographic is well-meaning but caught up in metrics.

    Metrics rely on historical data. Obviously Biden should be the candidate, he’s an incumbent, and incumbents have an advantage. The problem is the sample size is too low (n = 47) to really control for most variables. Especially since when you consider the study longitudinally, n = 1.

    Anyway, politics is hard, and I’m willing to give a little grace to those who are least trying to be smart. Strategists seem like the smart move, but the big paradox of analyzing a quickly-changing subject is that the more data-backed your strategy, the more outdated it is. The world moves too fast now.

    I suspect a not-insignificant segment of the caucus has been been just sincerely trying to play the right moves.













  • I think you overestimate the class consciousness of the average American voter. Biden didn’t get “pathetic votes”, he got the most votes of any president ever. Even just proportionately, all the presidents in the last century with a clear majority win have been neolib types.

    People don’t want to eat the rich, people wanna eat hamburgers and play video games. You and your little online message board friends (myself included) want to eat the rich, and if you spend all your time here you might fool yourself into thinking the average American has a somewhat elevated class consciousness. They do not.

    My work brings me in contact with all sorts of people across all strata of life. The average person just kinda muddles through life, they don’t really spend any particular length of time thinking about anything really, whatever their favorite diversion is perhaps (games, sports, TV, movies, etc.).

    I personally talked to a surprising number of people who, after the election, thought Biden was the candidate in 2024. People genuinely just do not care. They have basically no media literacy, no knowledge of current events, no general practice of critical thinking.

    We’re not gonna get a progressive president before the general class consciousness shifts significantly. What we can get is an FDR type who will at least talk to the progressives at the table, and then get progressive to the table.

    Slow and steady, comrade snail.