I think your job in your current form is likely in danger.

SOTA Foundation Models like GPT4 and Gemini Ultra can write code, execute, and debug with special chain of thought prompting techniques, and large acale process verification on synthetic data and RL search for correct outputs will make this 10x better. The silver lining to this is that I expect this to require an absolute shit ton of compute to constantly generate LLM output hundreds of times for each internal prompt over multiple prompts, requiring immense compute and possibly taking longer than an ordinary software engineer to run. I suspect early full stack developer LLMs will mainly be used to do a few very tedious coding tasks and SWEs will be cheaper for a fair length of time.

I expect it will be 2-3 years before this happens, so for that short period I expect workers to be “super-productive” by using LLMs in the coding process, but I expect the crossover point when the LLM becomes better is quite soon, perhaps in the next 5 years as compute requirements go down.

I really hate the state of the Supreme Court atm. Looking back, it wasn’t a legitimate institution from the beginning, but the current 6-3 court shows how flawed it is, being out of line with public opinion in loads of different cases and effectively legislating from the bench via judicial review.

The only reason it has gotten this bad, though, is because Congress has abdicated its responsibilities as a legislative body and left it more and more to executive orders and court decisions. The entire debate around the Dobbs decision could have been avoided if Dems codified abortion into law, and this one could have avoided too if our Congress actually went to work legislating a solution to the ongoing student loan and college affordability crisis.

I think we need supreme court reform. I’m particularly partial to the idea of having a rotating bench pulled randomly from the lower courts each term, with each party in Congress getting a certain amount of strike outs to take people off that they don’t want, similar to the way jurors are selected. I also think the people should be able to overrule the court via referendum, because ultimately we should decide what the constitution says.

I just can’t see this happening though, at least for multiple decades until the younger people today get into political power.

I don’t really think compulsory voting would be that beneficial for democrats. Yes, it may boost them a few points across the board, but my general intuition about the general public is they lean towards democrats but are more socially conservative than you see in online spaces. 2020 is probably the best example: super high turnout yet Dems still clipping by with only a +4 advantage instead of the +10 predicted by looking at far more politically engaged voters.

I mean advanced AI aside, there are already browser extensions that you can pay for that have humans on the other end solving your Captcha. It’s pretty much impossible to stop it imo

A long term solution would probably be a system similar to like public key/private key that is issued by a government or something to verify you’re a real person that you must provide to sign up for a site. We obviously don’t have the resources to do that 😐 and people are going to leak theirs starting day 1.

Honestly, disregarding the dystopian nature of it all, I think Sam Altman’s worldcoin is a good idea at least for authentication because all you need to do is scan your iris to prove you are a person and you’re in easily. People could steal your eyes tho 💀 so it’s not foolproof. But in general biometric proof of personhood could be a way forward as well.