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5·4 hours agoThen look at the KamalaHarris account quote tweeting the kamalahq account saying “hope he’s ok”
https://xcancel.com/kamalaharris/status/1846049221369024700?s=46&t=ybtfi8Urdi-1ZG9fTxJdzg
It’s also turnout game that matter at single digit percentages. If it dissuades 1% of trump supporters from turning out that matters. Or if it increases dem turnout by 1% that also matters
They’ve already got a couple of posts up about it on their social media
https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/DBIIO6WuAkO?hl=en
Nice, keep up the canavassing!
One thing I was told is that ringing the doorbell a second time after waiting a bit can increase the response rate. I haven’t tried it myself but was told by a couple of people that it helped a good amount
It can also just varies a lot day to day and location to location on the response rate. Some days more people answer the door, others day it seems emptier
You’d be suprised at what you can find out there that are better than you’d think
Like for example, I’ve had many oat milk skeptics turn into oat milk enthusiasts
Or if you like cooking, there’s so many great things out there. Ethiopian cuisine for instance has a bunch of traditionally vegan dishes
Just a handful of examples but there’s so much more out there
Early in person voting is also an option. Also it varies state to state when mail ballots are counted. Michigan for instance, is actually going to start counting some of them a bit before the election day as they arrive. (Michigan now has a democratic trifecta in local government)
Note though that a number of states have already started both mail and in person early voting. You are likely able to vote sooner than you may think
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/
I’d also encourage voting early. It can save you from any issues popping up like getting sick on election day. Campaigns will stop bugging you as much once they see that you have voted (though they obviously cannot see who you voted for)
Take action today! If nothing else it will help with anxiety
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Most likely way to work around it and get a popular vote election is going to be the national popular vote interstate compact
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
The electoral college is indeed quite frustrating, though note that downballot races in many non-battle ground states do matter. For instance, California and New York have some competitive house races despite not being super competitive for president
Harris wants to raise the minimum wage
The federal minimum wage has not increased from $7.25 per hour since 2009.
On the campaign trail, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has said that needs to change.
Harris supports the PRO act to help union’s ability to organize in “right to work” states. It would stop companies from being able to hold mandatory anti-union meetings. It would allow the national labor relation board to directly issue fines for labor law violations and issue compensation to employees. And more
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/25/kamala-harris-speech-teachers-union
Harris supports killing the filibuster to get abortion protections codified
Harris is for sure not perfect, but claiming the two are exactly the same is just not true
Let’s make sure it matters by making sure they’re outnumbered
I’ve seen others online suggest that this was an intentional leak for fundraising, but I’m dubious of that for a couple of reasons
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The leads for dems in some of these races (though certainly not all) are larger than what you’d hope to leak to show it’s still competitive to drive donations. For instance, they show Hogan in Maryland down by 7 points and trending in the opposite direction. If they were intentionally leaking, they probably wouldn’t have mention these races or leaked an outlier poll showing it closer
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Why would they leak mediocre trump president numbers in this too? Trump wants to claim that he’s winning and that everything is rigged against him, but leaking something showing the opposite would undercut him and draw his ire
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Not to mention, NBC ran the numbers with different turnout cases. In one of those cases, a very realistic but small few percentage point changes in turnout assumptions of different demographics could make the poll swing to 49% Harris to 46% Trump
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
Further, two other national polls released today showed the race as Harris+3. A lot of the dooming tends to be based on single polls. Yes the polls suggest race is close, but only paying attention to anything bad/mediocre isn’t helpful either
Don’t doom, take action instead
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Note that you are repeating the same polls multiple times in that listing. 538 lists the same poll multiple times based on the different results from it (likely voters vs register voters) and head to head vs full field often giving 2 to 4 results per poll. These are not separate polls. The NYT only did one poll of PA recently, don’t assume those are 4 at the same time
As an aside, some of the pollsters have gotten more partisan this cycle. That recent TIPP poll there was the most egregious where a previously reputable pollster just decided to just assume that philadelphia was going to have 1/10 of the normal turnout in their likely voter screening (look at the unusually massive difference in their likely voters vs registered voters). This is despite asking how likely they were to vote and people in philadelphia respondeded with normal numbers, not anything anywhere close to 1/10th. It wasn’t a mistake either, they replied saying they were the ones who did the likely voting screen and there were no errors, but didn’t really offer much of an explication of why they basically assumed philadelphia wouldn’t vote
For anyone anxious about the election, we can move the needle. Beyond just voting, volunteering is a great way to easy anxiety a bit and to help have an impact
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Highly encourage turning that election anxiety into action
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
On the flip side, Trump was overestimated in the Republican primaries this year. Pollsters have dramatically altered their polling this year in ways that are going to be more favorable to trump this year.
For instance, about 2/3rd of polls are now using recall polling which has historically not been used by pollsters because it tend to overstate the losing party of the election and underestimate the winners. Even non-recall polls have made changes like much more heavily sampling rural voters. Not to mention that the numbers of polls from partisian republican pollsters has been increasing which skews polling averages
Could he still be underestimated with all those changes, maybe, but at the same time I wouldn’t assume that’s anything given
Hey to be fair in May he did ask oil executives for 1 billion dollars directly in exchange for dismantling environmental regulations. Even the oil execs thought it was kind of insanely brazen
She’s certainly increased her messaging about it. For instance, she recently release her medical records and loudly asked why trump wasn’t doing the same this year when he has in the past