Great! Time to repeat some more republican talking points and post negative articles about Biden.
If we take OP at their word (you shouldn’t), this is how they’re “helping” Biden.
They’re also 100% sure Biden will be replaced at the convention, which would make their “concern” about Biden losing complete bullshit.
OP may not be a paid propagandist, but they’re doing everything one would do. Including the response of “blue maga” or that we’re delusional for seeing through this cheap bullshit.
The only reason Biden will get replaced at the convention (or Trump either, for that matter) is an overwhelming health condition and I guarantee the DNC would install Harris as the candidate, which would be a disaster.
Agreed.
And, again, national polls are pointless because we don’t have national elections.
California, Oregon, Washington, are all voting Biden.
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, are all voting Trump.
So what it comes down to are the bare minority of states that are actually in play:
Starting here:
Let’s look at these one by one:
Nevada: Trump +4 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/Arizona: Toss up. Biden +2 to Trump +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Minnesota: Toss up. Tie, Biden +2, Trump +3 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/Wisconsin: Toss up. Tie, Biden +2, Trump +1, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/Michigan: Toss up. Biden +2, +4 to Trump +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/Pennsylvania: Toss up. Biden +2, +3 to Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/Georgia: Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/So that gives us this:
Which is actually a GIANT improvement for Biden. Polling before this had shown him LOSING all those toss up states.
There is still an issue in that Trump is only 13 electoral college votes shy of a win while Biden is down 59. There’s less wiggle room on Biden’s side.
Michigan or Pennsylvania ALONE would put Trump over the top. Biden HAS to win those two states, but that still leaves him 25 short of the win.
Taking those off the table for Biden, Trump would only need 2 of the remaining 4 toss up states to get the votes he needs. Biden needs 3/4.
Here’s one scenario where everything comes down to New Mexico where we have had absolutely no useful polling since last August:
Biden taking New Mexico would give him the win with only 22 states + Washington DC, compared to Trumps 28 states. We would never hear the end of it.
Excellent analysis. Anecdotally it seems to me that unless the I25 corridor suffers some kind of world changing event, New Mexico is going to go to Biden. NM is purple for sure, but it went to both Gore and HRC. In the places I’ve been there it’s only bluer now.
I tend to agree, but we really need recent polling…
We definitely need something better than “some asshole’s vibe check”, but honestly I think apathy is a bigger threat to Biden than Trump. I think Trump winning the polls will bring more turnout, and that turnout will be more “I have to vote for him again?” than “my faschi boy can do it”
only 22 states + Washington DC, compared to Trumps 28 states.
Republicans are generally convinced that empty land votes. It’s absurd enough that we have to live with the Senate where 800,000 people in Wyoming or North Dakota get the same voting power as 40 million in California.
I always appreciate your analysis. Thank you. If the election was held today, more than likely Trump would win. I don’t know why Dems aren’t ringing the alarm about that. I think they have some delusions of grandeur that Biden will just magically pickup more support closer to the election.
It would help if Biden were actually campaigning NOW. Instead, it looks like he’s waiting for the convention in August which will be too late.
You know how Haley is now saying she’ll vote for Trump after heavily criticizing him during her campaign?
I truly feel like most Democratic voters are going to end up doing the same for Biden. And they say Trump is making headway into other demographics, but I find that incredibly unlikely.
Biden needs to stop hiding and get out there.
It’s a bad sign when people keep seeing this and their response is to downvote and defend Biden even more aggressively.
Like, I can’t imagine anyone who pays attention to politics thinking that browbeating people into voting for candidates they don’t like would be successful.
Like, it only worked in 2020 because trump was in office, but so many think it somehow means Biden is a great candidate and it’s a weird coincidence it took him 32 years to win his first presidential primary
The easiest way to beat Trump, is to run a popular candidate. And if Biden can’t accomplish anything more than the little he managed the first time, why wouldn’t we just run the Dem with the best shot at winning?
Biden literally barely managed it last time, and his numbers are worse across the board pretty much everywhere.
Polls consistently show Trump leads Biden in most of the seven crucial swing states that will likely decide the election—Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—all of which Biden won narrowly in 2020 with the exception of North Carolina.
Burying your head in the sand only helps trump.
There’s time to at least get Biden to stop pissing off the people he needs to win, and since the convention hasn’t happened yet, there’s even still time to just run someone people like and want to vote for.
why wouldn’t we just run the Dem with the best shot at winning?
Because Biden is the sitting President. The only person who can decide that the sitting President isn’t running is the President himself. See Johnson in '68.
In practice, but that’s because the party has always defaulted to supporting the incumbent.
The sitting president can’t just declare they’re the only option.
However what decides the candidate isn’t a primary election, those are completely nonbinding and more like a survey than anything.
So even if Biden lost the primary, the DNC could say he’s the candidate anyways.
So in practice you’re right. But saying it the way you did makes it sound like it wouldn’t be affront against democracy if it came down to the president losing the primary and the party running them anyways
This was NBC News August 2019. “But Trump” isn’t going to work again. The latest polling shows that.
The way people act Biden pulled a FDR landslide type victory, and not by an incredibly slim margin in a handful of states.
Just completely detached from the reality of what happened 4 years ago, and in such an obvious way that the more they scream about it, the less people believe anything coming from Biden, his campaign, or his supporters.
They just want to keep repeating “Biden is popular” and hope people start believing.
The delusion is real with many of them. Insert surprised Pikachu in November when they wonder why their voter shaming instead of pushing Biden to do something didn’t work.
I mean, obviously if Biden losses it’s because some people said it would happen.
Like, if your doctor tells you smoking 10 cartons of cigarettes a day will give you cancer, then tells you that you have cancer?
Obviously that means your doctor is a witch and gave you cancer. Couldn’t possibly be that she was trying to warn you about the logical results of your actions, that would mean it’s your fault.
