(The Center Square) – After failing to hold news conferences or give live interviews, and flipping on a range of issues, Vice President Kamala Harris is now slightly trailing former
The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.
A large portion of the shift towards Trump comes from two extremely unreliable sources Trafalgar Group, a republican funded polling agency, and Patriot Polling, which is only measuring registered voters not likely voters, and which doesn’t provide any additional details like demographic data (despite adjusting the numbers to account for demographics).
And the Arizona polls you cite are all from the same source. It’s actually kind of weird that they’re the outlier with the tie, because they’re sponsored by a pro-trump group.
The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.
Let’s see what it looks like now:
AZ - WOW(!) 4 most recent polls are ALL ties(!)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
NC - Trump +1, +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Trump +1, +2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Harris +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +2, Tied
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
MN - Harris +5, +7, +11
So, Arizona is out of the Trump column and back to toss up.
GA, NC and PA moving away from Harris.
MI I’m tempted to call a toss up but no recent polling there gives Trump an advantage, so it’s still slimly Harris as is NC and PA Trump.
WI moves from Harris to toss up and it seems likely MI will follow next week.
Plot that on the map and we get:
Trump needs 16. So GA by itself, or any two of WI, AZ, NV.
Harris needs 29. WI, AZ, NV is NOT enough. 27. So if Trump wins Georgia, she’s done.
She needs Georgia + 2 other states to win. Georgia +1 is not enough. The most she could get that way is 27 with AZ.
A large portion of the shift towards Trump comes from two extremely unreliable sources Trafalgar Group, a republican funded polling agency, and Patriot Polling, which is only measuring registered voters not likely voters, and which doesn’t provide any additional details like demographic data (despite adjusting the numbers to account for demographics).
And the Arizona polls you cite are all from the same source. It’s actually kind of weird that they’re the outlier with the tie, because they’re sponsored by a pro-trump group.
this country is fucked.