Every hole you might poke in it has already been answered definitively. Is the law meant to apply to the President? Absolutely 100% as you can see from the record of congressional debate over it. Must the person be found guilty of a specific crime? No, that has never been the case and it was so applied at the time. Gorsuch himself ruled that a state may exclude from the ballot a candidate who is ineligible to serve.
I think Trump’s entire argument is going to be a due process one - sure, 14A Section 3 applies to the President, sure it doesn’t require being convicted of a crime as such and of course a state may exclude from the ballot a candidate who is ineligible to serve. But who makes that determination, and under what standard? Just realize however you answer that question, the GOP will use that answer to it’s fullest extent against any Dem they can.
In the cases where it has been applied historically we were talking about public officials of an organization engaged in open rebellion against the US. There was no question of fact as to whether or not such a person was engaging in insurrection, as their public titles were leadership roles in a rebellion.
With Trump that’s…murkier. It’s not like he personally led an attack on the Capitol, he was too much of a pussy to do that. His speech at the initial rally is almost certainly constitutionally protected political speech, incitement is a very high bar to meet in the US. It’s intentionally murkier so as to create levels of indirection and questions of fact to make it harder to pin him down legally in case it failed.
Or else they’ll argue that a primary election is a private organization borrowing public infrastructure to decide who they want to back and thus the party is the only figure that should have any say who appears on their ballot. They could also choose to caucus instead, if they wanted. This would only apply for the primary ballot and not the general ballot, though.
Personally, I’m hoping for Trump to be barred from the general ballot, the GOP to throw 2nd place on it instead, and some Dems out there to be smart enough to pretend at being a fascist and try to convince GOP voters to write in Trump because “Those DeMoNRaT Leebruls Cant Stop the Trump Train!” which would do a fantastic job at splitting the GOP vote and guaranteeing a Dem win.
I think Trump’s entire argument is going to be a due process one - sure, 14A Section 3 applies to the President, sure it doesn’t require being convicted of a crime as such and of course a state may exclude from the ballot a candidate who is ineligible to serve. But who makes that determination, and under what standard? Just realize however you answer that question, the GOP will use that answer to it’s fullest extent against any Dem they can.
In the cases where it has been applied historically we were talking about public officials of an organization engaged in open rebellion against the US. There was no question of fact as to whether or not such a person was engaging in insurrection, as their public titles were leadership roles in a rebellion.
With Trump that’s…murkier. It’s not like he personally led an attack on the Capitol, he was too much of a pussy to do that. His speech at the initial rally is almost certainly constitutionally protected political speech, incitement is a very high bar to meet in the US. It’s intentionally murkier so as to create levels of indirection and questions of fact to make it harder to pin him down legally in case it failed.
Or else they’ll argue that a primary election is a private organization borrowing public infrastructure to decide who they want to back and thus the party is the only figure that should have any say who appears on their ballot. They could also choose to caucus instead, if they wanted. This would only apply for the primary ballot and not the general ballot, though.
Personally, I’m hoping for Trump to be barred from the general ballot, the GOP to throw 2nd place on it instead, and some Dems out there to be smart enough to pretend at being a fascist and try to convince GOP voters to write in Trump because “Those DeMoNRaT Leebruls Cant Stop the Trump Train!” which would do a fantastic job at splitting the GOP vote and guaranteeing a Dem win.