Pete Hahnloser

Green energy/tech reporter, burner, raver, graphic artist and vandweller.

  • 42 Posts
  • 144 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 6th, 2023

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  • I don’t see Biden stepping aside. This is somewhat of a milquetoast piece that ignores the absurd amount of legwork that would need to be done. It’s not just a vote at the DNC; it’s turning a battleship around in terms of communications against a guy who would paint it in a particularly vile way as weakness. Which is to say, fucked either way.

    The only way this conceivably happens is Biden dies before the election, which I’m sure there are contingency plans for, but that is the ultimate in-case-of-emergency-break-glass situation.

    These thinkpieces about how Biden turned in a poor showing (he did) that also ignore that Trump was abysmal … I don’t know what to make of that. Biden was low energy and a bit rambly, but he at least allowed the truth to come out of his mouth once. That should not be the bar, but with the candidates we have, it has to be.

    I cannot understand how anyone watches Trump and thinks “this guy gets me.” He’s not the second coming of Christ, he’s the second coming of P.T. Barnum.













  • Egregious clickbait hed. I don’t care the source, “than you might think” works psychologically on, well, more levels than you might think.

    Throughout this election, and honestly, past it wouldn’t be bad, wherever you are in the world, this phrase should be a red flag that you’ve run headlong into bullshit.

    That aside, Nature, are you OK? Journal articles tend to have as theses shit that isn’t somehow both obvious and vacuously true then not backed up by the passive voice, the gold standard for scientific literature. “The beaker was observed …”









  • YouGov and Morning Consult’s polls are outside the realm of “useful” in terms of political reporting.

    Thing about court cases is it doesn’t matter what the public thinks about a jury decision. That’s what elections are for; here, the determinations of exactly 12 people are all that counts.

    Here’s the one useful graf in the entire story:

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Thursday and Friday found that 5 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of independents said they are much less likely to vote for Trump because of the jury’s ruling. Meanwhile, 30 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of independents said the verdict made them much more likely to vote for Trump. However, the majority of Republicans (55 percent), independents (58 percent), and Democrats (58 percent) said the verdict didn’t change their minds on whether or not to vote for the former president.

    Given the narrow outcomes in swing states in 2020, that 5% drop in GOP support is much larger than it sounds. Like, more than 11,000 votes that will need to be “found.”

    That said, national polls are functionally useless for presidential elections on account of the Electoral College. All registered Republicans in California could abandon Trump without moving the needle on the election outcome; how that 5% is distributed among states and territories is the news, but with this sort of sample size, further breakdowns would have minimal or zero confidence.