Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said in an interview with NBC News that he will encourage progressive voters to still back Democrats on the ticket in November even if moderates are victorious in the primaries.
You are taking this law for granted and building another of your own on top of it.
Lol, how so?
This theory looks mainly based on observation of previous elections, it’s
I mean it uses previous elections as evidence to support a theory based on a logical deduction. Your claim is like saying the laws around gravity are only based on previous observations of how gravity functions. That every step you take “changes the data”.
educate yourself on how math works if you want to school others on anything scientific.
Someone has already done the Math… You don’t have to trust my opinion.
“Thomas R. Palfrey argued Duverger’s law can be proven mathematically at the limit when the number of voters approaches infinity for one single-winner district and where the probability distribution of votes is known, rational strategic voting forces a single-winner plurality system to collapse into a two-party competition.”
Meaning in this model as the number of voters approaches infinity, the vote share of any third or minor candidate shrinks toward zero in equilibrium.
In a democratic election each party has the same changes of winning
What does that even mean without context? The chances of winning are determined by the locality of the voters. A Democrat does not have the same chance of winning a seat in California as they do in Oklahoma, what are you talking about?
the world is divided into two factions that will never vote for anything that isn’t red or blue.
We’re talking about America…not the world. And yes, America is a two party system. The chances of a third party loosing isnt an absolute, but it’s as close to a guarantee as you could make in politics.
To dissolve a party you need to first start by creating a schism within the party itself.
It’s like arguing that to walk on the bottom surface of the earth you need magnetic boots, it only works if you assume that earth is flat and magnetic. You are making an argument on top of duverger’s law taking it for granted as a mathematical law, you are not supposed to do that.
I mean it uses previous elections as evidence to support a theory based on a logical deduction. Your claim is like saying the laws around gravity are only based on previous observations of how gravity functions. That every step you take “changes the data”.
Each election is different from another and has different parties running which means that each time the variables are different and unpredictable (you cannot mathematically predict what people will vote for in 5 years and which parties will run)
“Thomas R. Palfrey argued Duverger’s law can be proven mathematically at the limit when the number of voters approaches infinity for one single-winner district and where the probability distribution of votes is known, rational strategic voting forces a single-winner plurality system to collapse into a two-party competition.”
I argue that unless you can read the future you cannot prove mathematically what people are going to vote for.
The variables that matter are a constant… It doesn’t matter what parties run so long as the system in which they run is the same.
A person vote is a constant only if you assume that people will always vote in a certain way like voting for the party that has more chances of winning rather than voting for the party they identify with. That’s an assumption that generalize how people vote.
just that one of the main two parties in a two party system will win.
There are more than two parties or we wouldn’t be talking about third parties.
person vote is a constant only if you assume that people will always vote in a certain way like voting for the party that has more chances of winning rather than voting for the party they identify with. That’s an assumption that generalize how people vote.
The constants I was talking about were the first past the post style over elections and single member districts.
There are more than two parties or we wouldn’t be talking about third parties.
“two-party system is a political setup where two major parties win nearly all elections and hold almost all power in government.”
There are more than two parties or we wouldn’t be talking about third parties.
Yeah and there’s a star 51 light years from Earth named 51 Pegasi. It exists. We COULD talk about it. But it’s meaningless to us because it’s so far away and doesn’t provide us with anything of value in our daily lives.
And neither do non-viable 3rd parties in America.
Look. I’m gonna be honest with you. All your comments are being downvoted. You’ve got multiple people telling you that you need to educate yourself further on the topic of American politics before continuing to engage in discussions about American politics.
It’s not like you’re some genius that’s right while we’re all wrong. Take the L. Go learn more about the American political system. Then come back when you can talk about the system that exists, not the system you WISH existed.
Lol, how so?
I mean it uses previous elections as evidence to support a theory based on a logical deduction. Your claim is like saying the laws around gravity are only based on previous observations of how gravity functions. That every step you take “changes the data”.
Someone has already done the Math… You don’t have to trust my opinion.
“Thomas R. Palfrey argued Duverger’s law can be proven mathematically at the limit when the number of voters approaches infinity for one single-winner district and where the probability distribution of votes is known, rational strategic voting forces a single-winner plurality system to collapse into a two-party competition.”
Meaning in this model as the number of voters approaches infinity, the vote share of any third or minor candidate shrinks toward zero in equilibrium.
What does that even mean without context? The chances of winning are determined by the locality of the voters. A Democrat does not have the same chance of winning a seat in California as they do in Oklahoma, what are you talking about?
We’re talking about America…not the world. And yes, America is a two party system. The chances of a third party loosing isnt an absolute, but it’s as close to a guarantee as you could make in politics.
It’s like arguing that to walk on the bottom surface of the earth you need magnetic boots, it only works if you assume that earth is flat and magnetic. You are making an argument on top of duverger’s law taking it for granted as a mathematical law, you are not supposed to do that.
Each election is different from another and has different parties running which means that each time the variables are different and unpredictable (you cannot mathematically predict what people will vote for in 5 years and which parties will run)
I argue that unless you can read the future you cannot prove mathematically what people are going to vote for.
The variables that matter are a constant… It doesn’t matter what parties run so long as the system in which they run is the same.
This does not attempt to vision what party will win, just that one of the main two parties in a two party system will win.
A person vote is a constant only if you assume that people will always vote in a certain way like voting for the party that has more chances of winning rather than voting for the party they identify with. That’s an assumption that generalize how people vote.
There are more than two parties or we wouldn’t be talking about third parties.
The constants I was talking about were the first past the post style over elections and single member districts.
“two-party system is a political setup where two major parties win nearly all elections and hold almost all power in government.”
Yeah and there’s a star 51 light years from Earth named 51 Pegasi. It exists. We COULD talk about it. But it’s meaningless to us because it’s so far away and doesn’t provide us with anything of value in our daily lives.
And neither do non-viable 3rd parties in America.
Look. I’m gonna be honest with you. All your comments are being downvoted. You’ve got multiple people telling you that you need to educate yourself further on the topic of American politics before continuing to engage in discussions about American politics.
It’s not like you’re some genius that’s right while we’re all wrong. Take the L. Go learn more about the American political system. Then come back when you can talk about the system that exists, not the system you WISH existed.