the front page is now like half articles on this currently, so it’s probably time for a megathread because none of us want to keep track of 12 threads on this subject and all the resulting comments. only major subsequent developments (for example, boots on the ground; pronunciations by governments; that sort of stuff) will get their own thread. otherwise please post stuff in here for the time being. any threads not meeting this criteria will be locked and removed. thank you in advance for your cooperation.
Why couldn’t Biden have said about the hospital bombing in Gaza, despite the (supposed) evidence to the contrary, something like “this is a terrible tragedy for the Palestinian people,” (which he may in fact have said), but much more importantly, “it’s not clear who is responsible for this terrible attack,” even if there was 100% incontrovertible evidence that Islamic Jihad did this (which they may or may not have, I honestly don’t know). Everyone in the Arab world thinks, rightly, that the US will back Israel no matter what, and that we’re not a fair dealer in any of this. No one in the Arab world believes that IJ did this, they all believe Israel is responsible, and why shouldn’t they? What reason do they have to trust the US and Israel? This is where some diplomatic fudging could have really helped the situation. But Biden didn’t end up meeting with a single Arab leader because of this. At a certain point you have to throw the other side a bone if there is any hope of them ever trusting you. I confess that despite some things I definitely don’t like, I have been pleasantly surprised at how good the Biden presidency has been overall. But his trip to Israel may have made things a lot worse. No negotiations mean that no hostages will be released, no ceasefire can be implemented, no progress can be made.
A couple of points you might find interesting:
I might be overly optimistic, but I feel that countries (including the US) supporting Israel are in the process of diplomatically clarifying that their support is not really unconditional and that peace is the only acceptable objective. In that sense I don’t think his trip was all bad.
To add on to your point, you publicly support allies while having private conversations counseling them on prudent courses of action. They don’t listen to you if you call them out publicly, which is usually a sign that privately articulated red lines have been crossed. I’m sure Biden is pressing them privately to have a more measured response, and is likely to have more traction than if he was publicly trashing them.
Just like you don’t use all available sanctions out of the gate with an adversarial state, to leave room to negotiate and leave some channels open. Diplomacy is more nuanced than “saying it like it is” all the time.
I’m glad there’s something to be optimistic about 🥲