Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.

As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents

Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:

52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents

Chart Follows:

State Current Occupant Status D Cand R Cand Polling 10/18 Outcome Polling Direction
Colorado Democratic Hickenlooper Safe D John Hickelooper Mark Baisley D+6
Delaware Democratic Coons Safe D Chris Coons Michael Katz D+29.7
Georgia Democratic Ossoff Safe D Jon Ossoff Mike Collins D+8
Illnois Democratic Durbin Safe D Juliana Stratton Don Tracy D+20
Massachusetts Democratic Markey Safe D Ed Markey John Deaton D+24
New Hampshire Democratic Shaheen Safe D Chris Pappas John E. Sununu D+7
New Jersey Democratic Booker Safe D Cory Booker Justin Murphy D+22
New Mexico Democratic Luja Safe D Ben Ray Luján Larry Marker D+18
Oregon Democratic Merkley Safe D Jeff Merkley David Brock Smith D+25
Rhode Island Democratic Reed Safe D Jack Reed Raymond McKay D+20
Virginia Democratic Warner Safe D Mark Warner Bert Mizusawa D+20
Minnesota Democratic Smith D Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya D+4
North Carolina Republican Tillis D Roy Cooper Michael Whatley D+10 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
Alabama Republican Tuberville Safe R Everett Wess Barry Moore R+21
Arkansas Republican Cotton Safe R Hallie Shoffner Tom Cotton R+9
Florida Republican Moody Safe R Angie Nixon Ashley Moody R+5.2
Idaho Republican Risch Safe R Withdrawn Jim Risch R+12.1
Kentucky Republican McConnell Safe R Charles Booker Andy Barr R+9
Louisiana Republican Cassidy Safe R Jamie Davis Julia Letlow R+4
Mississippi Republican Hyde-Smith Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Scott Colom R+9
Montana Republican Daines Safe R Alani Bankhead Kurt Alme R+16
Nebraska Republican Ricketts Safe R Dan Osborn (I) Pete Ricketts R+1 R Momentum since 10/1
Oklahoma Republican Armstrong Safe R N’Kiyla Thomas Kevin Hern R+28
South Dakota Republican Rounds Safe R Brian Bengs Mike Rounds R+6
Tennessee Republican Hagerty Safe R Marquita Bradshaw Bill Hagerty R+25
West Virgiia Republican Capito Safe R Rachel Fetty Anderson Shelley Moore Capito R+21
Wyoming Republican Lummis Safe R James Byrd Harriet Hageman R+23
South Carolina Republican Graham R Annie Andrews Darline Graham R+1 R Momentum since 8/29
Alaska Republican Sullivan Tossup Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan D+3 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 8/4
Iowa Republican Ernst Tossup Josh Turek Ashley Hinson D+1 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 9/10
Kansas Republican Marshall Tossup Adam Hamilton Roger Marshall D+1 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 10/1
Maine Republican Collins Tossup Troy Jackson Susan Collins D+2 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 7/6
Michigan Democratic Peters Tossup Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers D+3 Possible R Flip D Momentum since 8/17
Ohio Republican Husted Tossup Sherrod Brown Jon Husted D+4 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/2
Texas Republican Cornyn Tossup James Talarico Ken Paxton D+4 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
  • GuyFawkesV@lemmy.world
    8·
    1 day ago

    Voted in my tossup race yesterday; in person. This is the easy part; the cleanup we have waiting will take decades.

    • spongebue@lemmy.world
      4·
      1 day ago

      I’ve been using Pollsmax. It’s pretty good. Of course after every election I am reminded that there will always be surprises and I need to stop treating these sites as if they were a crystal ball

      • NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
        3·
        1 day ago

        Very interesting, thanks. Boy, the difference between their polling and forecast is pretty stark. They are giving huge incumbency advantages to existing GOP senate seats, for example. Polling is D53-R47, and forecast is D48-R52, a 5-seat chamber control swing.

        I don’t know if that makes them more or less credible. GOP has outperformed in the past, and I’m very wary of vibes-based expectations, but Maine for example has Collins winning despite (1) their own average polling showing Jackson up by 2.7%, and three of four recent polls by 4%; (2) the last Senate seat going democratic; (3) the last presidential election going democratic; (4) the last governorship going democratic.

        Makes it it feel like their forecasting formula is putting a pretty big thumb on the scale, but then again, every time I’ve allowed myself optimism in the last 10 years of elections, I’ve been disappointed.

        • jordanlund@lemmy.worldOPM
          2·
          10 hours ago

          I was hearing about a South Carolina poll today predicting that 30% of the black vote is going to Darline Graham, which just seems absurd to me…

          • NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
            2·
            10 hours ago

            Yeah, that would be something.

            I think the forecasts are useful thought experiments, but it seems if you dig deep enough in the methodologies, eventually you always get to a priori premises and assumptions that can’t be supported except by intuition. It would be helpful for there to be a graphic map of those methodologies with “here be dragons” to denote when we’ve stopped using data. In any case, I’m holding onto some hope for this election despite those forecasts, but guarding it like a caveman would a fire.